Retailers: Imports at major US ports likely to drop for first time in over a year

Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see its first year-over-year decline in over a year and a half this month as the effect of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on the supply chain increases, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold in a press release. “From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes."

The tariffs will impact consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability of products on store shelves, Gold added. Gold said the series of tariffs Trump has imposed since February — including a minimum of 10% on all U.S. trading partners and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of nations announced in April plus a 145% tariff on China — come at the most important time in the buying process for retailers. 

Many retailers are pausing or canceling orders as a result, and small retailers, in particular, are concerned about what to expect in the coming months and how to order for the future, Gold said. As a result, imports are expected to be down at least 20% year over year from June into this fall, and volume for the year could be down by more than 10%. Nonetheless, trade has not come to a standstill, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

The NRF's report was issued late last week. Today, the United States and China agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs in an effort to defuse the trade war. The 145% U.S. tariff on Chinese goods will be reduced to 30% for 90 days, as the two nations continue talks aimed at reducing their differences, The New York Times reported this morning.