Retailers: With shelves stocked, imports now likely to slow

With tariff uncertainty continuing but most holiday merchandise already in stores or warehouses, import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports should encounter the usual end-of-year slowdown in November and December, according to the Global Port Tracker report released Nov. 7 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain, but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold in a press release.

Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely due to retailers taking such steps as frontloading imports when tariff increases are delayed or low, he added.

"Consumers should be able to find the products they want at prices they like," said Gold.

The United States' 20% so-called "fentanyl” tariff on China will be reduced to 10% today under a new trade agreement. Additionally, a twice-delayed increase in reciprocal tariffs on China that were set to take effect today has been delayed for a year.

An existing 10% reciprocal tariff on China imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in place, but the Supreme Court heard arguments last week on the legality of tariffs under the act, NRF officials noted.

On-again, off-again tariff policy has made long-term planning difficult for importers and ocean carriers alike, said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett.

"These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain," Hackett said. "Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026."