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7/9/2025
U.S. freight-rail carloads in June climbed 2.1% over June 2024's level, highlighting slight industrial growth. Intermodal volume, on the other hand, dropped 2.9% in June, the first year-over-year decline in nearly two years, according to the July edition of the "Rail Industry Overview" newsletter by the Association of American Railroads.
The newsletter highlighted several key traffic trends from June, including that the freight-rail index dipped 0.5% from May to June, bringing it to its lowest point since May 2024. This is mostly due to the drop in intermodal volume, AAR officials said.
Other highlights include that U.S. coal carloads rose 2.4% in June, the fourth consecutive year-over-year gain after 14 months of decline. Chemical carloads declined 0.6%, the first decline in nearly two years. Higher natural gas prices in 2025 contributed to this decline, according to the newsletter.
Meanwhile, grain carloads rose 11.3% over last year, the fourth consecutive gain. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, grain exports in 2025 are up 3.9%, with high corn exports helping to offset declines in soybean and sorghum exports.
For all of second-quarter 2025, intermodal volume was up 2%, and for the first six months of 2025, U.S. intermodal volume totaled 6.98 million units, up 5.1% over the same period last year. Future intermodal performance will hinge on the status of global supply chains and consumer demand, AAR officials said. Total carloads were up 4.8% in Q2 2025; and in the first half of 2025, total carloads were up 2.4%.
Consumer spending dropped 0.3% in May from April. A continued dip in consumer spending could constrain intermodal volume, AAR officials said. Meanwhile, manufacturing output was nearly unchanged between April and May, and up just 0.5% from last year. Until industrial activity improves, the number of rail carloads linked to manufacturing will continue to struggle.
"The first half of 2025 offered few clear signals, and the months ahead may be no different," said AAR officials. "Freight volumes, like the broader economy, will likely continue to reflect a mix of competing forces — some supportive, others restraining — as businesses and consumers navigate an unsettled economic landscape."