Retailers: U.S. summer import cargo expected to hit highest level since 2022

Monthly inbound cargo volume at the nation's major container ports is expected to reach its highest level in nearly two years this summer, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

"Consumers are continuing to spend more than last year, and retailers are stocking up to meet demand, especially as we head into peak shipping season," said Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customs policy, in a news release. “The high level of imports expected over the next several months is an encouraging sign that retailers are confident in strong sales throughout the remainder of the year."

An expected seven-month string of import levels above 2 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) — a level reached only twice since October 2022 — is being driven by changes in the annual peak shipping season.

"Imports of containerized goods at U.S. ports are booming, with particularly strong growth on the West Coast," said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. "In the last couple of years, we have witnessed a flattened peak season that has stretched out the volume of imports over extra months versus the strong, consolidated surge seen in the past."

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million TEUs in April, the latest month for which final numbers are available, up 4.6% from March and 13.2% year over year. It was the highest volume since 2.06 million TEUs were registered last October, the report states.

June import volume is forecasted to reach 2.11 million TEUs, which would be a 15.2% year-over-year gain. July volume is projected at 2.1 million TEUs, a 9.5% increase, and August volume is pegged at 2.17 million TEUs, a 10.6% increase.

The NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales — excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to 2023's level.