Retailers: Import cargo volume to rebound in July, drop in August

Retail import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to rebound this month after the double-digit drop in volume that occurred in late spring, the National Retail Federation  (NRF) announced yesterday.

However, volume is forecasted to fall again once previously paused tariffs take effect, according to the Global Port Tracker (GPT) report released yesterday by the NRF and Hackett Associates.

On July 7, President Donald Trump signed an executive order delaying "reciprocal" tariffs until Aug. 1, but also announced tariffs of up to 40% on over 12 countries. Uncertainty remains about whether Trump will issue more tariffs.

“A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in a press release. “The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility."

U.S. ports covered by GPT handled 1.95 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in May. That was down 11.8% from April and 6.4% year over year. GPT projects June volume at 2.06 million TEUs, up 5.9% from May but down 3.7% over last year.

July is forecast at 2.36 million TEUs, which would be up 2.1% year over year; August volume is predicted at 2.08 million TEUs, down 10.4%; and September is forecast at 1.82 million TEUs, down 19.9%. October volume is predicted to be 1.81 million TEUs, down 19.2%; and November is forecast at 1.7 million TEUs, down 21.3%.

While the falling totals in August through November are related to tariffs, the large year-over-year percentage declines are partly due to elevated imports in late 2024 because of concerns over East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes, NRF officials said.