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6/10/2026
Cargo import volumes at major U.S. container ports are projected to remain above 2025 levels in June, but will likely drop below last year's volumes in the fall, according to the newest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report, released on June 8 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The anticipated increase in volume in June can be partially attributed to retailers bringing in more merchandise ahead of tariffs and higher fuel prices expected to hit in August, said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold in a NRF press release.
"The ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty," Gold said.
The projected year-over-year increase in import volume this June is also partially due to the sharp drop in import volume last spring after President Donald Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025, said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.
"The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak. After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll," Hackett said.
U.S. ports covered by the GPT handled 2.05 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in April — excluding the Port of New York and New Jersey, which has not reported its numbers yet — down 7.3% from April 2025.
Ports have not yet reported May numbers, but GPT projected the month at 2.14 million TEUs, up 9.7% from May 2025. June is forecast at 2.25 million TEUs, up 14.3% from June 2025. GPT cites last year's low imports as the reason for year-over-year gains this May and June.
GPT forecasts July volume at 2.19 million TEUs, down 8.4% from last year; August at 2.12 million TEUs, down 8.6%; September at 2.06 million TEUs, down 2.2%; and October at 2.08 million TEUs, up 0.1%.
If the projections are accurate, those numbers would bring the total volume of cargo handled by GPT-tracked ports in first half of 2026 to 12.6 million TEUs, up 0.6% from the same period in 2025, in part due to the May and June increases, NRF officials said.