Retailers: Tariffs likely to slow U.S. imports through end of 2025

Monthly import cargo volume at major U.S. ports is expected to fall below the 2 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) mark for the rest of 2025, according to the Global Port Tracker (GPT) report issued yesterday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

Retailers frontloaded holiday shipments ahead of U.S.-issued reciprocal tariffs taking effect, according to the report. Imports for the rest of the year may be low due to the latest U.S.-imposed tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities regardless of country, which are set to take effect next week. Another U.S.-issued tariff increase on Chinese goods is planned to go into effect in November, unless a deal is reached or another delay is issued, according to NRF and Hackett. 

“Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent," said Hacket Associates founder Ben Hackett in a press release.

U.S. ports covered by the GPT handled 2.32 million TEUs in August, down 2.9% from July but up 0.1% over August 2024. Ports have not yet reported numbers for September, but GPT projects the month's volume at 2.12 million TEUs, down 6.8% year over year. October is forecast at 1.97 million TEUs, down 12.3%; November at 1.75 million TEUs, down 19.2%; and December at 1.72 million TEUs, down 19.4%.

If GPT's predictions are accurate, December would be the slowest month since 1.62 million TEUs were logged in March 2023. The falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, but the year-over-year percentage declines are related to the early peak season in 2025 and because imports in late 2024 were high due to port strike concerns, NRF officials said.

The first six months of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 24.79 million TEUs, down 12.8% over 2024.