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The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) at San Jose State University has researched the impacts of different post-pandemic recovery scenarios on state-generated transportation revenue and found that President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which includes $20 billion for public transit, is key to the future of public transit in California.
“This relief will keep agencies from laying off transit workers and cutting the routes that essential workers rely on every day while making these transit systems more resilient and ensuring that communities of color maintain the access to opportunity that public transportation provides,” according to the MTI.
In its new study, “The Impact of the COVID-19 Recovery on California Transportation Revenue: A Scenario Analysis through 2040,” MTI used six economic recovery scenarios to project the state’s future transportation revenue through 2040, finding that:
• By 2040, California’s annual transportation revenue could range from as little as $6.5 billion to as much as $10.9 billion;
• The projected cumulative revenue raised between 2020 and 2040 varies across the scenarios by more than $40 billion; and
• In 2020, fuel taxes will generate roughly three-quarters of state-generated transportation revenue but will likely generate a much smaller percentage by 2040 (less than a quarter in four of the six scenarios).
A full summary of the study may be read here.