Imports to slow soon at major container ports, Global Port Tracker predicts

Considering how new U.S. tariffs are increasing pressure on international trade, import volume at major North American ports soon will be headed downward, according to the August edition of the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates LLC.

Import cargo at more than a dozen U.S. and Canadian ports now is anticipated to total 24.1 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) by 2025’s end, which would be a 5.6% drop from 2024’s 25.5 million TEUs, the report states. 

“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold in a press release. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them.” 
 
The report authors project a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand by retailers.  

“Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. 

According to the latest Global Port Tracker, import volume in September is projected to total 1.83 million TEUs, which would be a 19.5% year-over-year decrease. October volume is expected to decline 18.9% to 1.82 million TEUs, November volume is forecasted to tumble 21.1% to 1.71 million TEUs — which would be the lowest monthly total since April 2023 — and December volume is anticipated to plunge 19.3% to 1.72 million TEUs. 

“While the falling aggregate totals in September through December are related to pulling cargo forward during the first half of the year due to tariffs, the large year-over-year percentage declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes,” the report states.