def Tallies, totals and other trend data in the freight transportation realm (7/3/2025) - RailPrime | ProgressiveRailroading - Subscribe Today

Tallies, totals and other trend data in the freight transportation realm (7/3/2025)

7/3/2025

19

"On tariffs ... sigh. As of [June 30], the average U.S. tariff was about 19%, the highest since the good ol' boom years of the 1930s (and compared to 2.4% last year). Is July 8 still an important date? Labor Day? January 20, 2029?" — Independent transportation analyst Tony Hatch in a June 30 email to his clients

8.2

Trade moving through the Port of Long Beach declined 8.2% in May due to tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, but a temporary pause on those fees will likely trigger a cargo surge by late June, port officials said on June 17. The port processed 639,160 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in May, down 8.2% from the same month last year. Imports dropped 13.4% to 299,116 TEUs and exports decreased 18.6% to 82,149 TEUs. Empty containers moving through the Port rose 3.2% to 257,895 TEUs. “We remain cautiously optimistic that import cargo will rebound at the end of June and into July just in time for the peak shipping season, when retailers stock the shelves with back-to-school supplies and begin preparations for the winter holidays,” said Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero.

5

In May, Port Houston handled 381,640 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), a 5% year-over-year increase, port officials announced on June 23. Year-to-date container volumes reached 1,837,813 TEUs, up 4% over the same 2024 period. Both loaded container imports and loaded container exports increased by 1%, reflecting "an ongoing balance in containerized trade activity in Houston," port officials said. The port's general cargo was up 12% and steel imports were up 11% compared with the same 2024 period.

5

The Port of Los Angeles processed 716,619 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in May, 5% less than during the same month last year, port officials said on June 13. After 10 straight months of year-over-year growth, overall cargo volume slowed due to the impact of tariffs on both imports and exports, they added. “May marked our lowest monthly cargo output in over two years,” Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said. “While May volume is typically stronger than April as we approach our traditional peak season, our imports dropped 19% compared to last month. Unless long-term, comprehensive trade agreements are reached soon, we’ll likely see higher prices and less selection during the year-end holiday season.”

3.6

The trucking industry's average cost of operating a truck in 2024 was $2.260 per mile, a 0.4 percent decline compared with 2023's average, according to a report issued July 1 by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) titled "An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking." When lower fuel costs are excluded, marginal costs rose 3.6 percent to $1.779 per mile – the highest costs ever recorded by ATRI for non-fuel operating costs, ATRI officials said.

3.4

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 0.4% month over month in May. Shipments fell 3.4% month over month in seasonally adjusted terms, Cass Information Systems Inc. officials said on June 12. "The trade war is having a variety of effects, with pre-tariff consumer spending still supporting freight demand," they said. "The negative consequences of tariff effects are partly reflected in May data, as pre-tariff inventory stocking has started to turn to destocking, and those stocks will start to thin in the coming months."

1.5

The Canadian economy is set to slip into "below-potential GDP growth" in the near term, S&P Global Ratings Economics officials said June 24 in a report titled "Economic Outlook Canada Q3 2025: U.S. Tariff Uncertainty And Slower Population Growth Weigh On Momentum." A higher U.S. tariff on Canada’s auto exports, in addition to consumers’ and businesses’ concerns about future U.S. trade policy, has "strained economic momentum and is set to continue in the near term," they said. As a result, S&P Global Ratings Economics forecast Canadian real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, and an "elevated level of business uncertainty" will keep unemployment averaging 7.1% over the next three quarters, before improving to 6.5% by 2026's end, officials said.

1.1

"Tariff-related concerns continue to cloud the outlook for North American credit conditions, with the reconciliation bill working its way through Congress, adding to uncertainty," S&P Global Ratings said in a report published June 25 titled "Credit Conditions North America Q3 2025: Still More Clouds Than Clarity." U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, and the fragility of a ceasefire, "heighten the risk that tensions will escalate and disrupt the capital and global energy markets, and economic activity," they added. Meanwhlie, the "threat of terrorism could curb travel and tourism, and the possibility of cyberattacks on critical U.S. infrastructure adds downside risk for an economy that is already slipping below trend growth," officials added. S&P Global Ratings now forecasts real GDP growth to slow to 1.1% by year's end.

0.1

U.S truck tonnage decreased 0.1% in May after increasing 0.5% in April, noted the writer of Women in Trucking's June 30 blog, citing American Trucking Associations (ATA) data. “The seesaw freight demand pattern continued in May, making it difficult to discern any clear pattern in the market,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Excluding the services economy — the largest part of economic activity— the goods market is all over the map, thus impacting freight levels. Construction is soft, manufacturing is up and down, and consumers are cautious.”

-0.81

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for April declined to a reading of -0.81 from 0.28 in March, FTR announced on June 20. “Tariffs and supply chain moves to minimize them have distorted freight market dynamics even though the overall TCI implied essentially neutral trucking conditions in February through April," said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. "As we finalize data for May and beyond, those factors and swings in diesel prices are likely to expose the true instability in the freight market. ... Uncertainty over the market’s direction remains quite high.”

-0.6

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index declined to -0.6 from +0.1 in March, FTR officials said on June 26. Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “With the tariff-avoidance phase now over and geopolitical developments taking a higher profile, we expect more variability in freight market conditions for shippers than we have seen for 2025 so far," said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. "Certainly, fuel costs have been highly volatile recently, but freight dynamics also seem less predictable. Tariff policies are still up in the air, and the stimulative effects of the presumed enactment of a tax bill are unclear. Also, an apparent sharp rise in truckers’ insurance premiums could begin to affect capacity in addition to the newly heightened scrutiny over drivers’ English language skills.”