Short-line traffic in Q1: More of a mixed bag than a singular trend 

By Jeff Stagl, Managing Editor 

There was good, there was bad and there was downright ugly. Regionals’ and short lines’ traffic in the first quarter generally fell into one of those three buckets. 

As for the good: Their collective carloads inched up 0.6% year over year to 1,463,357 units, according to the RailConnect Index of Short Line Traffic compiled by Wabtec Corp.’s GE Transportation subsidiary for the 13-week period ending March 29. The data was derived from 455 regionals and short lines. 

In addition, coal volume jumped 11% to 63,306 carloads; intermodal volume climbed 7% to 253,212 units; grain traffic increased 3.5% to 177,815 units; farm and food products loads (excluding grain) also rose 3.5% to 71,763 units; and chemical moves ratcheted up 1.3% to 262,008 units compared with first-quarter 2024 figures. Lumber and forest products carloads posted a very slight gain (0.6%) at 70,201 units. 

In terms of the bad, motor vehicles and equipment traffic declined 2.3% to 47,154 units; metals and products carloads dipped 1.9% to 112,999 units; paper products volume dropped 1.1% to 76,429 units; waste and scrap materials traffic slipped 0.8% to 81,032 units; and petroleum and coke moves decreased 0.4% to 47,055 units. 

Although the Chicago South Shore & South Bend Railroad’s traffic was flat, the Q1 result was satisfactory because both Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 were “good quarters,” according to the short line. Anacostia Rail Holdings

As for the ugly, “all other” traffic plummeted nearly 25% to 18,188 units, while ores volume tumbled 9.4% to 39,690 units and stone/clay/aggregates volume fell nearly 8% to 142,505 units. 

While this overarching data can best be described as a mixed bag for short-line traffic in Q1, the individual traffic results for many regionals, short lines and holding companies in the quarter equally bear that description. RailPrime reached out to a number of them over the past few weeks and the traffic performance figures and insights they provided via email follow. 

Tough sledding so far 

The largest holding company — Genesee & Wyoming Inc., which owns more than 100 regionals and short lines in Canada and the United States — had a trying quarter. 

“Traffic was down, due primarily to widespread and significant weather issues during the first quarter, as well as the negative impact of economic and trade uncertainty affecting numerous industries,” said Tom Ciuba, the company’s vice president of communications. 

Q1 wasn’t any better for Watco, the second-largest holding company, which owns about four dozen regionals and short lines. Watco’s traffic declined 1.4% year over year. 

For LAL, which owns four short lines, an uptick in grain shipments to points in the southeast hit by storms last year helped offset a Q1 drop in frac sand traffic. Livonia, Avon & Lakeville Railroad Corp. (LAL)

“This is primarily due to weather events that we experienced this year compared to last — winter weather in January, severe flooding in February, not to mention we just completed recovery efforts from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina,” Watco officials said. 

Coal volume plunged 32.2%, mostly attributed to flooding events that occurred in West Virgina in March; minerals volume fell 18.7% primarily because extremely low temperatures in January froze rock and sand to the point those materials couldn’t be dumped; and chemicals volume dropped 8.1%. 

On the positive side, food products volume shot up 28.8%, agricultural products traffic climbed 16.3% and crude oil moves increased 11.5%. In addition, overall traffic in March was much stronger than collective carloads earlier in 2025, Watco officials said. 

“[Traffic in] March finished 11.8% better than in February and 6.6% better than in January, so we are seeing an uptick and return of carloads,” they said. 

Overall, Farmrail’s total volume fell 14% from 1,962 carloads in the year-ago period to 1,686 carloads in 2025’s first quarter. Farmrail System Inc.

Indiana Harbor Belt Railroad Co. (IHB) officials noticed the same trend. Carloads for the largest switch carrier in the United States were up in February and March after tumbling in January. But that wasn’t enough to post a traffic gain in the quarter. 

“We were off 2% on the previous year volume. The potash and fuel markets started off slow in the first quarter,” said IHB General Manager John Wright. 

‘Flat is fine’

For Livonia, Avon & Lakeville Railroad Corp. — which owns four short lines — traffic in Q1 wasn’t that good, but it wasn’t that bad either. 

“If you add up the carload volume for our four railroads, we were basically flat. An uptick in grain shipments going to areas in the southeast hit by storms last year offset the drop in frac sand as drilling slows down,” said Bob Babcock, the company’s president and CEO. “There was some uptick in consumer products such as sugar and pet food.” 

The Q1 traffic outcome was the same for the Chicago South Shore & South Bend Railroad (CSS), which operates 182 miles of track in Chicago and northwest Indiana, interchanges with a host of other railroads and is owned by Anacostia Rail Holdings. The short line’s traffic was flat, and that actually was somewhat of a victory, said CSS President Todd Bjornstad. 

“Flat is fine. Both Q1 in 2024 and in 2025 were good quarters for CSS,” he said. “There were no surprises for any of our customers or in any business segments.” 

Anacostia — which owns five other short lines — also registered flat volume on a companywide traffic basis. Chemical and lumber traffic was down while intermodal volume for Pacific Harbor Line (PHL) at the Port of Long Beach in California was up because of retailers’ stockpiling to get ahead of the Trump Administration tariffs, said Anacostia Chief Operating Officer Mike Naatz. 

Traffic in commodities that aren’t impacted by tariffs — such as waste materials — performed better than those that are affected, he said. 

Going forward, Anacostia expects traffic to remain relatively flat due to mounting uncertainty in the United States. For example, Utah Iron LLC last week announced plans to close its iron ore mine in Cedar City because of rising Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports. The mine had shipped export ore to the Los Angeles-area ports via Union Pacific Railroad and PHL. 

“The mine is going to be shut down indefinitely,” said Naatz. 

Positives and negatives

An up-and-down quarter is the best way to characterize traffic for sister roads Red River Valley & Western Railroad Co. (RRVW) and Twin Cities & Western Railroad Co. (TCWR). Each railroad has experienced dramatically different demand based on its geographic position and ability to participate in certain grain/agriculture markets so far in 2025, said Victor Meyers, the president of both RRVW and TCWR. 

It was an up and down quarter for Tacoma Rail, with intermodal traffic up sharply by 44% and non-intermodal traffic down slightly by 2%. Tacoma Rail

RRVW’s traffic ballooned 19% in Q1, driven by a new soybean processing customer that came online in Q4 2024. Grain carloads rose slightly, with strong shuttle movements of corn to the Pacific Northwest for export and more movements to online agriculture processors, said Meyers. 

In addition, sugar carloads increased after a record sugar beet crop in RRVW’s service territory. 

Conversely, TCWR’s traffic plummeted 24% in Q1 even though ethanol carloads increased and sugar volume rose due to strong production from a sugar plant. 

“Grain carloads were down 43%. TCWR saw strong domestic demand for grain for the first three quarters of 2024, but increased grain production from the 2024 harvest in states south of Minnesota are currently fulfilling demand that TCWR customers supplied last year,” said Meyers. 

There were ups and downs for Farmrail System Inc. in the quarter, too. The owner of Farmrail Corp., Grainbelt Corp. and the recently formed Land Rush Rail Corp. notched year-over-year volume gains with aggregates, which climbed from 442 to 609 carloads; grain, which increased from 263 to 424 carloads; and chemicals, which rose from 214 to 231 carloads. 

But farm and food traffic dipped from 408 to 251 carloads and petroleum traffic plunged from 573 to 152 carloads. 

Overall, Farmrail’s total car count declined from 1,962 carloads in the year-ago period to 1,686 carloads, a 14% drop. 

Sizing up tariffs in Tacoma

For Tacoma Rail, non-intermodal traffic was in the red in Q1 as well, down 2%. Although transload and bulk liquid/tank car volume was up nearly 9% and 7%, respectively, import auto volume was down 7%. 

“One car manufacturer moved to another port,” said Tacoma Rail Chief Financial Officer and Chief Information Officer Dan McCabe. 

But what was very encouraging for the Washington state short line — which is owned by the city of Tacoma and operates about 140 miles of track — was intermodal traffic. Measured by intermodal wells, that traffic segment shot up 44%.   

“This can possibly be attributed to a number of factors, including new shipping lines calling on the Port of Tacoma, shifted trade lanes due to the Canadian strikes in 2024 and shippers getting ahead of the announced tariffs,” said McCabe. 

In general, it’s difficult for now to determine how the tariffs are affecting traffic, he adds. 

“If this is the primary source of traffic changes, some traffic could be increasing to get ahead of the tariffs, and others could be scaling back in preparation of the tariffs,” McCabe said. 

Meanwhile, Alaska Railroad Corp.’s Q1 traffic, as measured by rail cars, was up 1.1%, with higher local shipments and petroleum movements due to increased demand. Coal shipments fell in the quarter as a result of customer plant issues, railroad officials said.