All tariffed out: Trade policy unpredictability, economic uncertainty top finance and leasing execs' concerns list for '26
2/12/2026
By Pat Foran, Editor-in-Chief
After a year of tariffs and trade tiffs, and a (for the most part) collective silence from rail stakeholders regarding same in 2025, many North American railroad officials and those who serve, supply and otherwise guide them are matter-of-factly making their voices heard. Rail finance and leasing execs among them.
Every January, we ask dozens of execs who work in that sector: Will this year be better than last year for the rail finance and leasing sector? Worse? Similar? Why? What’s the year’s biggest issue?
This year, they told us: Tariff and trade policy unpredictability and lingering (as in LINGERING) economic uncertainty will continue to present significant headwinds in 2026. While a few suggested the industry is getting better at adapting — and that the constant state of uncertainty actually could pass for stable in some segments — most were less than sanguine about the sector's 2026 prospects in a “better” context.
The collective aim, of course, is “operating through extended uncertainty while continuing to deploy capital thoughtfully,” as officials from American Industrial Transport Inc. noted.
As 2026 unfolds, we’ll check in with respondents to see how they’re coping with the uncertainty and how they’re faring on the thoughtful capital deployment front.
In the meantime, here’s a sampling of their responses:
From a business perspective, will 2026 be better than 2025? Worse? Similar? Why?
American Industrial Transport Inc. (AITX) officials: 2026 is expected to be structurally similar to 2025, but with clearer signs of stabilization. Uncertainty around global trade, industrial production, geopolitics and policy continues to slow decision-making across the industry. At the same time, that uncertainty is becoming more familiar, which helps restore discipline and planning. As clarity improves, customers and car owners are likely to move from pause to action, even if conditions remain uneven. Cost pressures persist, but the industry is adapting and finding ways to operate more efficiently.
Tom Jackson, vice president of corporate marketing and general manager, The Greenbrier Cos.: Rail-car demand remains muted, driven by prolonged freight weakness, improved rail service and ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies. However, we anticipate some sequential improvement as aging fleets require replacement and previously deferred orders begin to materialize.
Joe Devoe, senior director, Helaba (Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen) New York Branch: Worse, under the presumption that the tariff uncertainty and reciprocal tariff uncertainty will continue. Bulk commodity shipments are a large driver of rail traffic. With uncertainty for future markets and their development, investment in new rail assets to serve that unknown will be curtailed dramatically. No amount of accelerated depreciation can justify ordering a rail asset if the underlying demand for its use to move freight does not exist.
Fred Duiven, partner, Oliver Wyman: Oliver Wyman believes there is a lot of stability in the rail-car leasing and financing space. New car orders are low, suggesting that capacity will not expand significantly; and this matches with overall demand for rail transportation, which is not growing significantly. While this may not sound good, it means a lot of stability for lease rates and rail-car valuations.
Christo Nielsen, vice president of leasing, RELAM Inc.: From a business perspective, it is expected that 2026 will be a year of cautious optimism compared to 2025. Factors such as uncertainty surrounding tariffs, workforce availability and federal funding may create a tighter contracting environment. Nevertheless, RELAM anticipates strong opportunities for contractors to expand their core service offerings to prospective rail customers. The company sees significant potential for contractors to enhance their services in 2026, which includes augmenting tie, rail and surfacing programs, as well as expanding access to hi-rail vehicle leasing fleets and providing vegetation management equipment. RELAM is committed to fully supporting these initiatives in partnership with Wiskerchen Truck & Equipment in the United States and Falcon Equipment in Canada.
Michael Sussman, CEO, Strategic Rail Finance: Too difficult to answer. We are at the most uncertain of times in the last 30 years with the chaos wrought by the [Trump] administration. The rail industry has been stuck in status quo operations and needs a comprehensive growth initiative Our non-profit institution, OnTrackNorthAmerica is about to announce VitalRail, the needed initiative for growing the freight industry service to the critical industries it serves.
What is the key issue facing the rail finance/leasing sector in 2026? Why?
AITX officials: The key issue in 2026 is operating through extended uncertainty while continuing to deploy capital thoughtfully. The first half of the year may closely resemble 2025, with cautious customer behavior and deliberate investment decisions. Improvement is more likely in the back half as supply chains adjust and confidence returns. As that shift occurs, the market will increasingly reward operators with scale, diversification and integrated capabilities. Rail’s role as a stabilizing force within freight transportation becomes more pronounced in this phase, favoring partners that can deliver consistent capacity, operational flexibility and integrated solutions as customers move from caution back to execution.
Greenbrier’s Jackson: The rail-car finance and leasing sector in 2026 faces persistent high interest rates and inflation, driving up borrowing and equipment costs. These pressures delay new rail-car orders and fleet upgrades, while secondary market demand stays strong. Overall, capital cost uncertainty is the key constraint on growth.
Helaba’s Devoe: In addition to the tariff uncertainty, USMCA — its renegotiation, its abolishment, etc. — will have a major impact given the manufacturing footprint of North American rail-car manufacturers.
Oliver Wyman’s Duiven: The biggest concern is overall economic uncertainty. As long as the economy continues to move forward, even if slowly, so demand for rail services does not drop, things will stay stable. Further mergers in the rail industry could potentially unlock some growth in rail, but this will happen after 2026.
RELAM’s Nielsen: The rail finance and leasing sector in 2026 is facing issues such as the need for flexibility and adaptability in an ever-changing market environment. Leasing capital equipment is crucial as it conserves cash, provides access to the latest technology or new/remanufactured units. This approach enables railroads and contractors to remain competitive and resilient by avoiding large upfront investments and instead focusing capital on core growth initiatives. It allows companies to quickly adapt to seasonal spikes, new projects or fluctuating demand through shorter lease terms and adjustable capacity.
Strategic Rail Finance’s Sussman: The rail industry has been stuck in status quo operations and needs a comprehensive growth initiative. Our non-profit institution, OnTrackNorthAmerica, is about to announce VitalRail, an initiative for growing the freight industry service to the critical industries it serves.
