IANA on intermodal traffic growth: Will a mighty 2024 be followed by a meager 2025?
2/3/2025
By Jeff Stagl, Managing Editor
The 2024 volume figures for the fourth quarter and full year are in from the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA). And the results — which were released Jan. 29 — are rather stellar.
In Q4, total volume climbed 7.5% year over year to 4,695,362 units. International container volume shot up 9.6% to 2,290,966 units; the domestic container count rose 6.5% to 2,245,992 units; total domestic equipment movements increased 5.6% to 2,404,396 units; and trailer volume dropped 6.2% to 158,404.
It was the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year traffic growth, IANA officials said in the organization’s “Intermodal Quarterly” report. All but one of the seven highest-density trade corridors — which collectively handled more than 60% of total volume — posted gains in Q4. Only the Northeast-Midwest Corridor recorded a loss, at 1.6%.
Supported by robust job creation, consistent wage growth and lower unemployment, consumer spending remained strong last year, IANA officials said. Purchases of goods achieved parity with spending on services on a year-over-year basis.
“The U.S. economy concluded the year on solid footing, overcoming earlier concerns about a potential slowdown in global growth and domestic activity,” IANA officials said. “Housing, inflation and manufacturing persisted as headwinds, but the fourth quarter underscored the economy’s resilience and overall capacity to navigate challenges.”
It was an exceptional quarter for domestic container movements. The segment reached its highest-ever-recorded volume, IANA officials said.
For CSX, intermodal volume and revenue rose 4% and 5%, respectively, in Q4. More consistent service, new customer alignments and modal conversions helped drive traffic. CSX“Anchored by the Midwest, which accounted for 29% of the total originations, the growth was spread across the network and showed that domestic containers are expanding their reach and likely their share,” they said. “Trucking still faces overcapacity, but cost pressures for driver wages, insurance, tractor/trailer costs and fuel are pushing highway rates higher, giving domestic containers room to grow.”
In all of 2024 on a year-over-year basis, total volume climbed 8.5% to a little more than 18 million units; international container volume soared 13.9% to more than 9 million units; domestic container volume rose 5.3% to more than 8 million units; total domestic equipment volume increased 3.5% to more than 9 million units; and the number of trailers plummeted 16.1% to slightly less than 600,000. In 2023, total volume fell 5.9%, international container volume tumbled 8.4% and domestic container volume dipped 1.2%.
Looking ahead, intermodal traffic in 2025 will continue to be impacted by economic activity in North America, which likely will grow only minimally, IANA officials predict.
“Two percent GDP growth is anticipated for 2025, which would represent a normalization of conditions and the first year out of the shadow of COVID,” they said. “Freight flows are returning to familiar seasonal patterns as swings in demand, production and inventories fade.”
The overall forecast for intermodal traffic calls for modest, incremental growth. International container loadings are likely to inch up 0.6% as imports return to East and Gulf ports, where intermodal has less share, IANA officials said.
“Domestic container traffic is poised to expand 3% as this mode slowly gains share versus over-the-road competition,” they said. “Trailer loadings are likely to continue their downturn, falling 5.8%. Overall, the intermodal network is anticipated to see loadings expand by 1.5% in 2025.”
Although NS’ annual intermodal revenue dipped 2% to a little more than $3 billion in 2024, its intermodal volume for the year climbed 7% to 4.1 million units. Norfolk Southern RailwayTo gauge domestic traffic contributions to that forecast, association officials will be monitoring length of hauls, any gains in short-haul intermodal and auto inventories, said IANA spokesperson Alex Shtogren in an email. Association leaders anticipate that domestic intermodal should have an improved competitive position by 2025’s second half, but they believe intermodal providers should “calibrate their expectations.”
“Even by 2026, trucking capacity is not likely to be tight enough to offer the scope of opportunity seen in prior periods of trucking stress, such as 2021 or 2018,” IANA officials said.
The new Trump administration likely means much fewer regulatory changes that could curtail trucking productivity while helping to propel intermodal, they believe. But there still are regulatory-related things that bear watching, said Shtogren.
“We’re keeping an eye on worker classification, permit reform, rail mandates/two-person crew requirements and truck driver age initiatives,” he said.
IANA also will be keeping tabs on the import tariffs the Trump administration implemented on Feb. 1: 10% on imports from China, and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada. On Feb. 3, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the tariffs would be postponed for a month since Mexico promised to immediately help reinforce the Mexico-U.S. border with 10,000 National Guard troops. Later on Feb. 3, Canada also reached an agreement with the United States to hold off on the tariffs for one month.
Moreover, a Trump administration policy change IANA figures to monitor this year is the crackdown on illegal immigration.
“Although a significant loss of undocumented labor likely would not affect trucking directly, the resulting labor tightness in sectors like construction that compete with trucking for workers could mean tighter capacity and more opportunity for intermodal,” IANA officials said.
