— by Jeff Stagl

Late last year, Class I chief executives predicted 2009 would be a tough year because of the withering economy. But they also expected an upturn to occur in late 2009. They were certainly right on the first count and way off base on the second.

The lingering recession has kept Class Is' 2009 traffic levels about 20 percent below 2008 levels and a number of commodities — namely ores, coal, aggregates, lumber, paper, metals and autos — have tanked all year.

However, there were the smallest of signs that the economy bottomed out in the third quarter, when Class Is noted a slight traffic upturn.

"Our carloads were up 3 to 6 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter," said CSX Corp. Chairman, President and CEO Michael Ward. "The seasonal pattern usually shows traffic is 2 to 3 percent less from the second to the third quarter."

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